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An Analysis of Bordeaux Wine Ratings, 1970-2005: Implications for the Existing Classification of the Médoc and Graves

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Vol 8 No 11
By:  Gary M. Thompson Ph.D., Stephen A. Mutkoski Ph.D., Youngran Bae, Liliana Ielacqua, and Se Bum Oh

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Executive Summary: The French châteaux producing Bordeaux wines were classified in 1855, creating a taxonomy that continues in force to the present day. An analysis of the ratings of vintages from 1970 to 2005 from three popular rating sources—Robert Parker, Stephen Tanzer, and Wine Spectator—provides a lens into the status of that 1855 Classification, as well as allows a comparison of those three raters. The analysis found considerable internal consistency in the three rating sources and a high degree of correlation between those experts’ ratings. However, the raters differ systematically in the scores they assign. This study is based on 339 combinations of château and vintage for the “classified growths” for which we were able to find ratings from all three sources. We identify the top-rated years and top-rated châteaux, and compare this information to the 1855 Classification. Given our findings we propose an update to the 1855 Classification that incorporates the ratings we examine. To begin with, several châteaux showed remarkable staying power over the intervening 150 years. However, some châteaux had advanced to in the rankings, while others have faded, at least based on this sample of vintages. Notable changes include Château Leoville-Las-Cases (Saint-Julien) moving from second to first growth, replacing Château Mouton-Rothschild (Pauillac), and two châteaux moving from the fifth growth to the second growth: Château Lynch-Bages (Pauillac) and Château Pontet-Canet (Pauillac). Market prices of the 2005 vintage tend to support our findings. For example, as of early May 2008, the price of the Château Leoville-Las-Cases (Saint-Julien) was about three times that of the other nominally second-growth wines. While we believe it is unlikely that the classification will be changed, we believe that our proposed classification update (and our rank-ordering of the châteaux) can help guide wine purchase decisions of consumers and the restaurant industry.

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Comments

Your study proves what knowledgeable wine consumers have known all along: that a wine’s price is not always proportional to its quality or to the pleasure it gives. 

Regarding the critics, or "rating dis-services" as I call them, I would put more trust in the opinions of a Master of Wine or Master Sommelier.  The critics don't taste double blind (they know the category & price range); they use silly (absurd & snobbish) verbiage and are all on the take in one form or another. Furthermore, when the critics rate, they are merely tasting. Sipping, sloshing & spitting does not provide the same sensations and pleasure (or dis-pleasure) as sharing the whole bottle with good company and good (and appropriate) food.  How do they get their points, anyway?  There is no algorithm, just a gut reaction.  So why rate?  Do buy we beer or cheese on points?

It would have been more interesting, albeit with similar outcome, to poll ten or twenty of the 400 negociants (shippers) in Bordeaux today to see what their first tranche wholesale prices have been over the past 20 years.  You could compare average selling prices of each chateau today with that of 1855 to get your new ranking.  

But I guess today’s release prices are influenced by the critics’ scores even before the Chateaux set their opening prices.  I guess that's why most classified chateaux use reverse osmosis and micro-bullage today: to get bigger, smoother wine on release so they can get more points so they can increase their prices!

Rick Schofield
Fine Wine Manager
Viscount Wine and Liquor

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About Gary M. Thompson Ph.D.

Gary M. Thompson is a professor of operations management in the School of Hotel Administration, where he teaches graduate and undergraduate courses in operations management. Previously he spent eight years on the faculty of the David Eccles School of Business at the University of Utah. He holds a BS with first class honors from the University of New Brunswick, an MBA from the University of Western Ontario, and a PhD in operations management from The Florida State University. His current research focuses on optimizing restaurant table mixes, on optimizing conference schedules to improve attendee satisfaction, on course scheduling in post-secondary and corporate training environments, and on the effects on customer service of labor staffing and scheduling decisions. His research has appeared in the Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, Decision Sciences, the Journal of Operations Management, Management Science, Naval Research Logistics, Operations Research and other journals. He has consulted for several prominent hospitality companies and is the founder and president of Thoughtimus, Inc., a small software development firm focusing on scheduling products.

For more information visit http://www.hotelschool.cornell.edu/research/facultybios/faculty.html?id=84

About Stephen A. Mutkoski Ph.D.

Stephen A. Mutkoski is the Banfi Vintners Endowed Chair of Wine Education and Management at the School of Hotel Administration, where he has taught since 1972. He received his BS from Cornell University in 1967 and his PhD in 1976. A former food and beverage manager and restaurant owner, Mutkoski has been able to combine his professional career with his love of food and wine. He teaches several food and beverage management courses in both the academic programs and the executive education program at Cornell. His “Introduction to Wine” class has an enrollment of over 700 students each term. In the past 23 years he has taught over 33,000 Cornell graduates about the pleasures of wine and the fascinating story behind each label. He conducts food and beverage management executive education seminars and lectures on wine throughout the world. He and his wife, Patricia, have authored and published a series of interactive multimedia training/educational programs on the wine producing regions of the world called The Wine Professor®. The Wine Professor programs are used by consumers, educators and beverage professionals. He is the author of two distance learning courses: “Foodservice Management Systems: Issues and Concepts”, and “Foodservice Management Systems: Operations”, which were published by eCornell. He writes a quarterly wine column for the Cornell Hotel School alumni magazine. He also serves as a food and beverage management consultant to several hotel, restaurant, airline and cruise line companies. In 2006 the European Wine Council selected Mutkoski for their Wine Educator of the Year award.

For more information visit http://www.hotelschool.cornell.edu/research/facultybios/faculty.html?id=55