Faculty & Research

"Despite 2009 being the year where we usher in change in the Oval Office, in the macroeconomy, it looks like we'll be seeing much of the same. With unemployment and productivity numbers looking grim and grumblings about still more irresponsibility on the part of some of our financial leaders continuing to mount, the economy looks to remain stagnant at best. Those needing liquidity via the credit markets will likely still find cash relatively hard to come by, and cash-hungry industries will look to batten down the hatches. Still, folks with capital can look to bargain hunt in the wake of massive devaluations as we are likely to see one of the most attractive forward-long markets in decades."

"My perspective on the outlook for 2009 is that the combination of the amount of liquidity the Federal Government has poured into the system (in excess of five trillion dollars) plus the additional trillion dollars that Obama will put into the mix, as well as the Obama halo effect will turn the economy into a very bullish perhaps inflationary market by the middle of the year.  Two significant issues remain to be resolved.  First we must clean up the mortgage mess and keep people in their homes, if possible.  Secondly, we must reignite the job market which depends largely on US consumer spending. Travel and hospitality should front run the recovery by 3-4 months."

“Without a doubt, our biggest challenge is coping with the recession that is upon us and to ensure that we make every effort to save on costs, while at the same time we ensure that we give great value and great service to our guests. Dubai itself and the UAE are still looking at a GDP growth for 2009, which is extremely encouraging, particularly since one considers that we have had an incredible growth over the last 10 years. I think that we are well prepared within Jumeirah, as a mature company that has been in operation for 11 years, to be able to weather the storm. And I think we will come out as a very strong company at the other end. We are also working very closely with Dubai Tourism and Commerce Marketing and with the rest of our colleagues in the travel and tourism trade in Dubai, in particular with Emirates Airlines, to come up with very interesting promotions and packages.”

“Almost by any measure, we expect 2009 to be a very challenging year for the hotel industry. Specifically, we expect that room demand will again fall below prior year levels which will make it very difficult for most hoteliers to maintain pricing integrity. With both declining demand and falling room rates, RevPAR is certain to drop for the second straight year. On the positive side, room supply growth has begun to slow somewhat and by the end of 2009 the rate that new rooms are entering the market will be markedly lower. That coupled with the fact that we expect slight improvements in demand during the second half of the year will result in improving industry fundamentals by the end of 2009. The results will also be helped by the fact that comparisons to late 2008 will be made to what has been a very awful quarter.”

To watch a video of Mark discussing his 2009 projections, please visit www.hotelnewsnow.com.

"From a retail consumer perspective, I expect consumers to continue, and possibly even deepen, their “wait and see” approach to any spending. Consumers have already been cutting back, and in doing so are starting to make decisions based on needs, versus wants. As the recession continues, this mindset will only harden, thereby changing the consumer decision-making process of asking “do I really need this?” into a true behavior, in other words something they ask of themselves before every purchase decision. What this means: Retailers and other brands throughout hospitality will need to change at least some of their positioning (depending on product and target audience) from “indulgence” to “necessity” to try and overcome this behavior as times tighten into late 2009."

"At this point I see more questions than answers: Will the media attention surrounding corporate excess (e.g. the auto companies' private travel) lead to employers reducing and downgrading business travel? Will owners and operators forgo capital improvements? If so, how will that affect personal and business travel decisions? Will operators lay off employees or reduce hours? If so, how will that affect staffing when the economy picks up? Will layoffs lead to more or less union organizing? Is this just another downturn in the economy or is this a fundamental change that will alter the world economy? I believe we are in for a wild ride."

"The economy is likely to continue its contraction, which hits hospitality hard. Digital alternatives to meetings are likely to increase in practice. Most companies will cut back severely on training and development expenditures, which will create competitive advantage possibilities for those companies who are able to continue to invest in their people."

"Not GOOD!! Unfortunately I think the industry will still see declines across all sectors as business travel is significantly cut back, and leisure travel continues to struggle (as a result of the housing slump, layoffs, etc). Best case would be a slight recovery in 4th quarter of next year."